Oct 1 South Africa (Vaal) form analysis

Race 1 (1,200m)

(2) MIZZEN SWORD has improved with each outing and was third over track and trip last time, so he should play a leading role with further progress expected.

(1) ZAFAR could be more effective over the shorter trip, while (4) AMERICAN EAGLE and well-bred (7) ONE MORE STAR are likely to improve after modest introductions.

Race 2 (1,400m)

(6) PEARL IN HER CROWN could hardly have been more impressive when winning over this track and trip on her reappearance four weeks ago and could follow up with improvement on the cards.

(1) HAPPY MO concedes weight to all but has the form and experience to fight out the finish, which could also be said of stablemates (2) WE ARE THE LOGANS and (4) GIMMEACHOICE. The latter is fitted with blinkers for the first time and could improve for it.

Race 3 (1,800m)

(2) AMBITIOUS LADY finished ahead of (5) HAT’S LADY and (1) PLUM BLOSSOM in a 2,000m maiden on this course in September, so she should not be hastily condemned for her disappointing last start over 1,600m on the Classic track.

(4) TIK TOK ADDICTION was ahead of her that day and should remain competitive.

Race 4 (1,800m)

(1) EMBLEM OF WAR is an interesting runner on his return from a rest during which he was gelded, having shown promise in three starts before the layoff. He is open to improvement on his reappearance and could represent the value in the race.

(2) STORM AHEAD has the form, experience and superior race fitness to fight out the finish, while three-year-old colts (10) ANOTHER UNIVERSE and (12) PALACE GUARD could improve for the step-up to 1,800m.

Race 5 (1,000m)

Consistent filly (2) THE NAVY LARK won a similar course-and-distance contest in September. She will be competitive.

Both (4) SECRET CHORD and (5) VEGAS HI RISE are 3kg better off on that form, so are weighted to pose more of a threat.

(3) WHAT A TIGER finished behind The Navy Lark over 1,000m in September and could also get closer.

Race 6 (1,100m)

(1) KYLIE’S ANGEL acquitted herself well at a higher level on her handicap debut, so she should fight out the finish eased in grade off a reduced mark.

Speedy (6) PERINI PALACE bounced back to form over 1,600m with blinkers refitted and could confirm that form and improvement with the headgear retained.

(7) TWICE AS WILD has dropped to a competitive mark and should be involved again, while hard-knocker (10) SMELTING should not be discounted with just 49kg on her back.

Race 7 (1,100m)

(1) DYCE got his career back on track with a last-start success under jockey Piere Strydom and is weighted to follow up.

(4) CLIFF HANGER should keep that rival honest, although (2) QUANTUM THEORY and (5) TROPPO VELOCE also have the means to play leading roles.

Race 8 (1,200m)

(6) INAFIX scored for the second time in three starts when winning over this trip on the Classic track last time but copped a four-point penalty for his troubles.

(8) SAMOA, who is 2.5kg better off for a ¼-length beating by that rival over 1,100m on Aug 29, is the main threat. She must be respected. (4) WRITTEN IN STONE earned a four-point penalty for finishing fourth over 1,450m recently but should play another leading role over a trip he enjoys.

(2) ARILENA can be included in the exotics.