Oct 9 Hong Kong (Happy Valley) form analysis

Race 1 (1,650m)

6 Running Ahead showed promise on his Class 5 debut over this course and distance, closing strongly into fourth despite a wide draw. Gate 1 will give him an excellent chance to settle closer to the pace and boost his winning chances.

1 Go Go Go has been ultra-consistent and, with Zac Purton staying aboard from gate 4, it is tough to see him running a bad race.

2 Kasa Papa is one to follow now that he drops into Class 5. The booking of Hugh Bowman is a key positive.

7 Right Honourable, second-up, signalled that a win could be near with a solid third-place finish. The old boy may still have something to offer.

 

Race 2 (1,000m)

2 Speedy Fortune could break through as trainer David Eustace’s first winner in Hong Kong. He finished last season in solid form, placing twice at this level on the downgrade. His trials leading into this race have been positive.

1 Parents’ Love signalled his readiness with a close second at this course and distance in his first Class 5 run last time. Purton stays aboard, and a maiden victory seems imminent.

3 Ace Talent also has strong claims, especially with the in-form Caspar Fownes and Bowman partnership combining. The horse’s form is consistent and hard to overlook.

4 Good View Glory was impressive winning at this course and distance two starts ago, but his subsequent run at Sha Tin was below expectations. With the benefit of gate 1, he can bounce back.

 

Race 3 (1,650m)

7 Super Unicorn will be well-fancied as trainer Frankie Lor and Purton team up with this maiden who is overdue for a win. He was a luckless runner-up last start, after racing ungenerously and being steadied at a crucial moment. With gate 1 in his favour, he looks poised to finally break through.

1 Northern Beast has gate 11 to contend with, but second-up conditions should suit him better than first-up, when he was in need of the run. He also reunites with Bowman at a track where he has tasted success.

3 Kimberley has switched to the Danny Shum stable in the off-season and showed improvement in his trials, so a better performance can be expected.

6 Strongest Boy came from the clouds to run a fair fifth over 1,400m on Sept 15. He is drawn well in gate 3 and will have the services of Karis Teetan again.

 

Race 4 (1,200m)

1 King Eccellente returns to Class 4, where his chances tend to be stronger. He is a fit horse after two runs this season and has the advantage of Bowman taking the reins from a favourable draw in gate 4.

3 Aurora Lady has been knocking on the door for a win and ran bravely for fourth last time, despite being asked to do too much on the lead.

5 Unison will improve on his second career start after gaining valuable experience first-up, and gate 2 will ensure a smooth run.

11 Never Peter Out makes his seasonal return for a new stable, having switched to Lor’s yard. His best effort came late last season and, from gate 1, he should get a comfortable trip.

 

Race 5 (1,200m)

5 Gallant Valour turned in a solid fourth-place effort first-up and will benefit from improved fitness. He reunites with Bowman and draws well in gate 4, giving him a good chance in this highly competitive race.

1 High Percentage was in stellar form last season, winning two consecutive races by wide margins before a setback. With Purton aboard and gate 1, he is well-positioned to return to his best provided he is back in good health.

7 Happy Park is showing steady improvement and his strong Sha Tin form could transfer well to his first run at Happy Valley.

12 Tactical Command delivered an impressive first-up run, his best effort yet in Class 4, and he looks capable of continuing to perform well in this grade.

 

Race 6 (1,200m)

1 Swift Ascend presents a strong chance for Eustace to secure a win, dropping into Class 4 for the first time. His past Class 3 performances should serve him well. He is returning from an eight-month break, which poses a slight query, but has Purton in the saddle aided by a low draw in gate 3.

9 Talents Supremo benefits from another good barrier in gate 1 and, if he jumps cleanly, he appears an honest chance.

3 Nebraskan, a late-fading fifth first-up, looked in need of the run but was only beaten less than two lengths, making him a fitter proposition this time.

2 King Glorioso drops into Class 4 for the first time and has shown improvement in a recent trial under Bowman, who rides him. He looks ready to take a step forward.

 

Race 7 (1,650m)

3 M Unicorn is better suited back at Happy Valley, where his best form has been. Drawing well in gate 3, he looks poised to figure in the finish with jockey Vincent Ho astride.

12 I Can is presented third-up and a kinder barrier draw in gate 2 works in his favour after drawing no lower than 11 in his last four starts. Despite this, he continues to run well and was beaten by a strong performer last start – he can atone.

8 Setanta is a backmarker who relies on luck in running but, if he can utilise gate 1 well, his winning chances appear very strong, especially as he is racing well enough since his transfer to trainer Mark Newnham.

7 Fighting Machine will be interesting to watch as he steps into Class 3 for the first time after an easy win at the top of Class 4. Purton sticks with him, although gate 11 may prove tricky.

 

Race 8 (1,200m)

11 Chateauneuf remains relatively unexposed as he steps up in class following a narrow defeat in Class 4. Drawing gate 1 works in his favour, particularly as many of his main rivals have drawn wide and will require significant early luck. He could just find the necessary favours to secure the win.

6 Golden Empire is a potential knockout chance from gate 4. Now third-up, he has finished close in both of his runs this campaign and is expected to put in a competitive performance.

1 Reward Smile had a tough task from gate 11 first-up but finished strongly into second after being held up for much of the straight. Jumping from gate 10 does not ease his chances.

5 Super Joy N Fun is a talented horse, with three wins from seven starts, and likely has not reached his ceiling yet. However, gate 12 will make it difficult for him to claim victory.

Comments courtesy of The Hong Kong Jockey Club