Don’t bypass Overpass in Winterbottom

PERTH - After Port Lockroy snared the Railway Stakes on Nov 23, the second Group 1 event of The Pinnacles in Perth sees another Sydney raider and regular visitor Overpass attempt to defend his Winterbottom crown at Ascot on Nov 30.

The placement of the Bjorn Baker-trained Vancouver six-year-old has been outstanding, picking and choosing races to target and coming out successful with three feature Perth sprints in 12 months, banking nearly A$5 million (S$4.35 million) in the process.

The nine-time winner returns to Ascot rated 122 on the Timeform scale, a rating he has achieved on four occasions, yet just once in Perth, when beating Amelia’s Jewel in The Quokka (1,200m) in April.

His other two Perth wins, in the 2023 The Quokka and the 2023 Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes (1,200m), have rated 119, and that sort of rating again on Nov 30 would surely see him win once more.

Of the horses he is up against in the A$1.5 million renewal of Perth’s premier sprint, only two have ever put up a Timeform rating above 120 – Lady Laguna and Western Empire.

Lady Laguna ran to 121 when winning the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes (1,300m) on March 9, but that is seeming more and more like an anomaly, with an average rating of 109.8 since.

They both come through the Group 1 Champions Sprint (1,200m) at Flemington on Nov 9.

It was a muddling affair run at a slow pace, with both Overpass and Lady Laguna fading after settling on the pace.

Back around a bend definitely suits Overpass and drawing wide (16) also suits.

His best asset is speed, and while it can be trickier to judge pace down the straight, Sydney jockey Joshua Parr (who gets it right 99 per cent of the time) will have no option but to run them along, which is a good thing.

The different set-up for Overpass is how fresh he is.

His three Ascot wins have been off 140, 49 and 159 days – first-up for two and fresh off The Everest in the other.

This year he has had another run since the day he claimed the Group 3 Sydney Stakes (1,200m). He struggled off 21 days at his next start in the Champions Sprint – which is the same gap to the upcoming Winterbottom Stakes.

While that is a slight negative, racing is not black and white. The pace and dash home was arguably why he struggled at Flemington.

Delving further back through his record, he has run to ratings 114 off just a two-week turnaround, and a rating of 122 off 28 days, and he is a better horse now.

Fresh may be best for him but it is too convenient to cherry pick that stat as why he has improved so much in the past 18 months.

All put simply, he is a lot better than these if he turns up and runs to his rating.

Western Empire ran to 116 on the Timeform scale fresh over 1,100m, looking a touch unlucky from the wide gate.

Some argue he was a certainty beaten, but the winner Rope Them In was holding Western Empire comfortably through the line.

The Grant & Alana Williams-trained Iffraaj seven-year-old does have a peak of 121 but it was a lifetime ago in the 2021 Railway Stakes (1,600m).

There is also some queries whether he is sharp enough to be winning this at 1,200m.

The interesting horse is Bravo Centurion, who is certainly sharp enough – a dominant winner over 1,000m last time – running to 116+ with Timeform.

He led throughout and put nearly four lengths on his nearest rival, finishing full of running in the process, to bring up his sixth consecutive win for trainer Luke Fernie.

His ratings leapt from 106 to 116, but the rise to 1,200m has to be the concern, given that five of those six wins have been at 1,000m.

The 1,200m win came in a Pinjarra Class 1 with a rating of 82.

With the National Defense four-year-old having drawn one inside Overpass, the pace will definitely be on early, but this will be a completely different ball game for Bravo Centurion with Overpass breathing fire on his outside.

The only other one with a rating in that vicinity is Maharba who comes over having run to 116 last start at Flemington.

The Grahame Begg-trained Pride Of Dubai four-year-old is a solid horse coming off a career peak and drawn well in six. He has claims and may well be a better bet at double the price of Lady Laguna and Western Empire.

Some have tried to overcomplicate this race but, if Overpass were coming off his Sydney Stakes win, he would have been in the red.

There are three distinct data points at this track and trip that say he is simply better than these horses.

Racing And Sports