Sept 12 South Africa (Vaal) form analysis

Race 1 (1,200m)

(11) PALACE DANCER stayed on well from a handy position to finish second on debut over this track and trip. With the benefit of that experience, she could improve to go one better.

(1) KIT KAT KATIE was only 1.35 lengths adrift of that rival, so she could pose the biggest threat although (7) BELLISSIVAR has both the form and experience to also fight for victory.

(3) BLACK HOLE SUN, (5) SOMEDAY MAYBE and (2) BILINGUAL are the next three worth including in the shortlist.

Race 2 (1,200m)

(12) BLIZZARD SNOW finished second on debut over this course and distance behind a well-fancied newcomer colt. So is good value to open her account here with natural improvement expected.

(4) BUSSTOPINHOUNSLOW concedes a 2.5kg sex allowance to that rival but has shown enough to challenge for race honours.

(5) GLOBAL ZEE can get into the picture with further improvement.

Newcomers (8) AMERICAN EAGLE, (10) PRIMAL QUEST, and (9) PARABELLUM are worth a market check.

Race 3 (1,200m)

(10) MIZZEN SWORD put a poor debut outing behind him with a fast-finishing fourth over 1000m on his return from a break.

He finished ahead of (5) ANTONIO GAUDI and will confirm that form if making further progress.

(7) BAD MEDICINE has been on a break for 20 weeks after not striding out last time. He remains open to improvement.

(2) ALONE TIME has shown enough to be competitive, while (4) SPY STORY and stablemate (8) DIVINE MESSENGER are also open to improvement having been gelded since last seen.

Race 4 (2,000m)

(1) AVOONTOAST finished behind (2) I AM REGAL over 2,000m on similar weight terms recently but was well back on that occasion. There should not be much between them.

(3) ARIEL’S JET had (8) PARTY PUNCH, (5) PLAY WITH FIRE and (4) PRETTY IN PEARLS behind her when winning over 1,800m last time and the four of them are closely matched on these revised terms.

A chance is worth taking on well-bred (6) SILVER FLARE whose 1,600m maiden win gave the impression that this longer trip could be more to her liking. She has made marked improvement since relocating to the Highveld.

Race 5 (1,400m)

(1) BLUE HORIZON sets a good standard and is most effective over this distance.

However, jockey Kaidan Brewer, who partnered her to second over 1,200m last time, rides promising 3yo filly (8) WILLY MEET AGAIN instead, having ridden her on debut. The latter confirmed the encouragement of that debut second over 1,000m by winning over 1,200m and should continue to improve, especially over this extended trip she is bred to enjoy.

Craig Zackey, who rode Willy Meet Again to victory, rides at a minimum 53.5kg.

So he partners stablemate (3) ALABAMA ANNA who also has legitimate claims.

(9) MARY READ comes next.

Race 6 (1,400m)

Well-related (3) WILLOWILD made the expected improvement stepping up from 1,200m to 1,500m as a 2yo, beating winners on this track in late July. She remains open to progress but will need to have done so in the six weeks since, if she is to thwart in-form (2) RISKY BUSINESS. The latter recently completed her hat-trick over 1,500m on this track and a further four-point penalty is not likely to halt her momentum.

(7) PERINI PALACE is better off at the weights with that rival, so has to be respected too.

(1) ONE RELIGION and (6) TOGETHER AGAIN are not taken lightly.

Race 7 (1,200m)

(1) TSAR BOMBA is engaged to run at an earlier meeting but would hold every chance if taking his place, so his participation must be monitored.

(2) BLACK EGRET has shown his form and well-being on turf and Poly in 1,000m KZN races at a higher level. He is most effective over 1,200m so should play a leading role.

A bigger threat could come from last-start winners (7) CIAN THE CONQUEROR, despite a five-point penalty, and (5) ESQUEVELLE off an unchanged mark, as well as (9) OPEN HIGHWAY.

Race 8 (1,200m)

(1) PURPLENINJATURTLE has shown improvement in 2 starts back on the Highveld after he was gelded, winning over 1,160m before finishing an eye-catching course-and-distance third in a similar race under 61.5kg in August. He races off an unchanged mark and this looks an easier assignment.

There are, however, dangers aplenty including (6) PRINCE OF KILDARE who has also acquitted himself competitively at a higher level in recent starts.

(7) VAVA VEGAS has dropped to an attractive mark and enjoys 1,200m, while last-start scorer (8) WRITTEN IN STONE remains competitive under a penalty.