Teen may well rule Cape Met
Old guard may have to pass baton to 3YO star Eight On Eighteen in South Africa G1
CAPE TOWN - With the older horses, barring See It Again, so closely clustered in the ratings, smoking out the winner of the Grade 1 Cape Town Met (2,000m) might hinge on a couple of factors.
The first one is just how good is the sole 3YO participant and now ante-post favourite, Eight On Eighteen.
The second is the impact the likely strong pace will have on each contestant.
If only See It Again could be assured of running up to his best figures, then the puzzle is solved. The high-class son of Twice Over is top rated by some margin and will relish a fiercely run 2,000m race on a galloping track.
The main query about Michael Roberts’ charge is his current physical condition. See It Again tottered in stone last in his Grade 1 L’Ormarins King’s Plate (1,600m) prep run three weeks ago, though the stipes report indicated that nothing obviously wrong was detected.
Stable feedback is that the Durban-based star is battling to recover from his cross-country travels.
He had an arduous time of it when competing in the Grade 1 Summer Cup (2,000m) at Turffontein at high altitude, where he bravely gave the winner, the reopposing Atticus Finch 6kg, and was only beaten 2 1/2 lengths into fifth spot.
If See it Again is revived in time for the historic Grade 1 at scenic Hollywoodbets Kenilworth, then he will be a major player.
However, should he underperform again, then the race is there to be won by emerging challenger Eight On Eighteen.
He has twice finished a length or two shy of One Stripe, the standout of his generation in South Africa, and who has recently been sold in a private deal and is slated to be trained for turf races in America by Graham Motion.
In the Grade 1 Cape Guineas (1,600m), Justin Snaith’s charge produced similar 800m and 400m come-home sectionals to One Stripe before succumbing by 1 1/4 lengths.
Building on that level of performance, whilst carrying just 54kg would make him mighty dangerous against older foes conceding around 6kg.
His jockey Richard Fourie feels the son of Lancaster Bomber will have no problem handling the extra 400m.
If Eight On Eighteen is indeed nearly as good as One Stripe and sees it out fine, then he could well justify heavy market support from opening bids of 12-1 down to current quotes of 3-1.
There is a lone filly in the race, Red Palace, who figures to work out a smooth commute from draw 1 stalking the pace along the inside rails.
She ran a fine second in the Grade 1 Paddock Stakes (1,800m) when done for finishing speed by Double Grand Slam, and though she has been impressing astute trainer Dean Kannemeyer with sharp workouts, it remains to be seen if her overall form stacks up quite strongly enough.
The older male entries are tightly matched on ability figures and seem to take turns beating each other.
Oriental Charm won the Grade 1 Durban July (2,200m) in a perfectly judged front running steal but will face more pace pressure this time. On collateral form, he has a similar ability rating to Royal Aussie, who might be at his absolute best up to a mile.
Montien emerged with great credit when holding second behind One Stripe in the King’s Plate after racing handy from a wide gate, but he must again get over from barrier 15.
Piet Botha’s aptly named Dare to Dream Racing Stables has a seriously live Met contender.
Rascallion, second in the Met in 2024 and winner of three feature races from his last four starts, is an admirable, high-class stalwart for a confident, Vaughan Marshall, who knows what it takes to win this race.
Rascallion will run his heart out as always, but lengthens stride rather than quickens so needs everything to fall into place perfectly. Gate 16 complicates matters.
With some trepidation, Eight On Eighteen is selected over Future Swing, Rascallion and Montien, with fickle See It Again lurking as the “mystery horse.” CAPE RACING
Get The New Paper on your phone with the free TNP app. Download from the Apple App Store or Google Play Store now